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Six sliders for the macro shape of a year. The dial swings to the closest match across 28 anchor years between 1857 and 2024. The defaults sit at present-day estimates. Move them.
The Fed held rates at 5.25 to 5.5 percent for most of the year as inflation cooled toward target without a recession. Generative AI capex took the S&P to record highs. Public debt sat above 120 percent of GDP and the political mandate to address it was absent. Mandate stability had been falling for a decade and showed no sign of reversing.
See whyThe single feature pulling your reading away from this year is Real 10-year sovereign rate. Move that slider toward the faint default tick to tighten the match. The score updates as you go.